UKIP elect their new leader this week, but does it matter anymore?

This article originally appeared on United Politics on 12/09/2016.

This Thursday sees the election of the new UKIP leader. Arguably one of the more difficult jobs in politics, considering the admiration Farage receives from the party faithful. Whoever takes the role will have big shoes to fill.

Replacing Farage will not be a simple task, especially in light of all the controversy that has surrounded this leadership election. The two candidates most favoured for the job aren’t on the ballot paper. Suzanne Evans, who was suspended by Farage back in March for ‘disloyalty’, and Steven Woolfe, who many saw as the obvious successor, was controversially kept off the ballot by UKIP’s NEC.

This act has caused huge consternation amongst UKIP members and supporters. A mixed race, northern working class boy done good with a charismatic presence and professional media style, he was seen by the membership as the ideal candidate to take the party forward to fight Labour in those northern working class constituencies it has long taken for granted, and avoid a slide into irrelevancy in the wake of the referendum vote.

That was how Woolfe positioned himself too. At his leadership rally in Manchester – a few days before the application deadline closed, he spoke of the need to professionalise and detoxify the party.

This is an issue recognised by much of the membership too. All parties have their lunatic fringes, but UKIP are not the swivel eyed loons many make them out to be, just working class people who feel abandoned by the two main parties.

They are well aware of their toxic image, and many of the questions aimed at Woolfe during that rally were on that topic. When asked by one black man how he proposed to shed the party’s racist image Woolfe responded, to cheers and applause, ‘by getting you elected.’

But after Woolfe failed to get his application papers in before the deadline, blaming technical failings of UKIP’s submission system, the NEC ruled that he was ineligible to stand. This has caused uproar within the membership. Branches across the country have been holding votes on whether or not to call for an EGM to discuss constitutional reform – one imagines code for ‘abolish the NEC’ in light of the decision.

Their dismay has been further confounded by reports that Lisa Duffy, a UKIP councillor standing for leader, had her application bankrolled by an NEC member who failed to declare a conflict of interest prior to the Woolfe vote, and news that the Gambling Commission was investigating a large bet placed against Woolfe becoming leader, before the NEC result was known.

This internal warfare means that UKIP have gone from being perfectly placed to capitalise on the Brexit vote and professionalise their image in the post-Farage era, to disappearing into the irrelevancy some predicted would befall them in the event of a Leave vote. Woolfe garnered a lot of media coverage for his fledgling bid, but the contest has been all but ignored by the mainstream media since his exclusion.

The current favourite Diane James does possesses the same media polish that Woolfe has, but being a southerner, will struggle much more to connect with those working class communities up north. This will prevent a steeper uphill climb for UKIP to increase their vote share and really take the fight to a Labour party in equal disarray.

With a less than optimal new leader, and a membership divided and railing against the party machine, UKIP run the risk not of unseating Labour, but following their lead to electoral irrelevance.

The ship Farage steered to a win at the European elections, over 4 million votes at the general election, and ultimately to their finest hour of the referendum win, risks hitting the rocks just as it picks up steam. We will soon find out whether or not the new skipper can successfully steer them to a new course, or whether they will sink to the bottom of the ocean of British politics.

Theresa May must be the luckiest politician alive

In the wake of the Brexit vote, British politics has been equal parts enthralling and bug-nutty, bat shit crazy, with the three largest parties in the country all playing out various soap operas. The Prime Minister resigned, prompting his would be successors to begin a typical Tory blood letting. Labour back benchers mounted a coup against their leader, plunging the party still further behind in the polls. And the man arguably most responsible for securing the referendum, had a second crack at resigning as leader of UKIP and launched that party into internal warfare as well. Given the current landscape, our new Prime Minister could be forgiven for feeling a little smug.

Because for Theresa May's Conservative Party, there is currently little to no electoral threat. Her Majesty's opposition is missing in action. Jeremy Corbyn may have rallied several thousand young socialists to his cause, but the wider electorate who rejected Ed Miliband's brand of leftist politics at the last election aren't about to lend their vote to a man who's own politics make Red Ed look like the Iron Lady. The PLP might just know this, and could be why they launched a leadership challenge in the wake of Corbyn's sacking of Hillary Benn. However. far from solving the issue, their approach has all but consigned Labour to electoral oblivion. Their ultimate choice to challenge Corbyn isn't someone with a more centrist approach, but with equally strong socialists views. Indeed, Owen Smith's entire pitch for the leadership seems to be 'Corbyn's policies, but without the stigma'. Not that it really matters, even taking into account Labour's attempts to prevent entryism, Corbyn still enjoys the backing of huge swathes of the membership. It's incredibly likely that he will fend off Smith, and use his renewed mandate to truly purge the front bench of Blair/Brownites. This may will win him all those student votes that previously went to the Lib Dems (remember them?) but will alienate much of Labour's traditional working class support. Those people don't want the kind of state enforced egalitarianism Corbyn espouses, but the opportunities to climb the social ladder themselves.

This is precisely where UKIP should be planning to mount their assault. They already had strong second places in many of these Labour seats at the last general election and with the right approach could do to Labour in it's northern heartlands what the SNP did north of Hadrian's Wall. Prospective leadership candidate Steven Woolfe knew this, and it was precisely this platform on which he was launching his leadership bid. A charismatic, media-savvy operator of mixed race heritage and a working-class-lad-done-good back story, he was perfectly positioned to lead UKIP into the post-Farage era, clean up the party's image and take the fight to Labour in those northern towns and cities where their traditional base is feeling left behind. Alas for Woolfe, and much of the UKIP membership who support him, it's not to be. Following poor administration procedures, and an apparent attempt from some on UKIP's National Executive Committee to undermine his bid, Woolfe has been successfully kept off the leadership ballot. Three members of the NEC have resigned in protest, admonishing their colleagues in a statement, claiming the NEC is 'no longer fit for purpose' due to an 'escalating megalomania that is detrimental to the functioning of the party.' Those candidates that did get their paperwork in on time are mostly unknowns. The exception being the new favourite Diane James. Also confident in front of the TV cameras, but much too southern to really strike a chord in those northern constituencies where UKIP need to focus their efforts.

And amongst all this, Theresa May must be grinning like a loon. Having seen her main leadership challenger knifed by the next strongest contender, ultimately dooming both of them, she was able to ascend to the position of Tory Party Leader with little effort, and having got there, discovered that there's no party willing to challenge her government. Labour is sawing off the branch it's currently sat on and UKIP has tied it's own shoelaces together before the start of the race. This may give the government some much needed breathing room on Brexit, but a strong democracy needs a strong opposition and as it stands, there doesn't seem to be anyone in a position to provide it.